Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 92029.702977 97046.753880 102059.536140 107440.441466 113049.507060 118720.545441 124884.108543
2025-06-08 82979.219750 90606.153633 98437.834914 107070.305472 116307.717493 125885.359349 136555.672258
2025-06-15 77842.579257 87358.124811 97340.130035 108570.397846 120830.863780 133787.428168 148492.303523
2025-06-22 73492.105729 84404.882196 96059.879928 109397.789755 124202.057961 140092.765525 158401.397920
2025-06-29 69487.231544 81457.450171 94445.876968 109533.381430 126522.167427 145004.970540 166577.088577
2025-07-06 66025.867281 78852.822171 92971.594756 109593.596930 128552.030500 149425.580904 174067.331026
2025-07-13 64124.831108 77860.932345 93173.705401 111415.929782 132457.814159 155867.922056 183778.871414
2025-07-20 62296.104569 76821.136649 93206.363836 112941.584694 135943.248491 161779.737302 192863.426019
2025-07-27 60293.458406 75460.824754 92764.977860 113825.065030 138612.696916 166706.736465 200793.773863
2025-08-03 58018.522392 73667.333850 91717.429878 113907.220893 140271.714431 170411.140600 207276.109003
2025-08-10 56097.293691 72208.575198 90985.811096 114289.074845 142222.274909 174412.708617 214083.158241
2025-08-17 54153.146198 70639.651456 90048.517367 114356.967655 143743.839959 177871.366438 220231.765286
2025-08-24 52902.818763 69894.905929 90092.464149 115610.062540 146708.533664 183087.716380 228549.160278
2025-08-31 50942.724297 68202.814939 88924.459103 115340.445826 147801.609646 186058.914794 234198.098218
2025-09-07 50052.390805 67810.503324 89320.718635 116962.018319 151179.220971 191772.416176 243161.862674
2025-09-14 48864.362228 66993.177293 89148.887247 117847.347122 153633.190093 196364.818106 250786.549145
2025-09-21 47396.348774 65765.356985 88416.843669 117992.831230 155142.659566 199791.879677 256995.297777
2025-09-28 45973.023658 64546.505139 87652.136333 118057.124148 156519.738299 203038.411396 262980.727168
2025-10-05 45476.761535 64512.761134 88376.371197 119992.844008 160234.929417 209171.722130 272544.179033
2025-10-12 44870.979094 64309.239435 88863.177079 121613.107769 163551.131649 214823.761511 281545.062315
2025-10-19 44001.544196 63725.426074 88833.634238 122551.256142 165993.599138 219392.480819 289221.673580
2025-10-26 42812.406905 62677.146043 88167.456924 122638.492016 167331.388630 222571.320045 295169.920860
2025-11-02 41810.098406 61850.495187 87764.411242 123043.944343 169060.343448 226235.781591 301735.844809